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Russian President Vladimir Putin once mused in 2002, before deciding to ratify
the UN's Kyoto Protocol for fighting global warming, that warming might be good
for his chill nation.
"Maybe it would be good and we could spend less on fur coats and other warm
things," he said.
Northern nations such as Russia or Canada may be celebrating better harvests
and less icy winters in coming decades even as rising seas are washing away
Pacific island states.
A draft UN report to be issued
in Brussels at the end of the week foresees unequal impacts from warming:
tropical nations from Africa to the Pacific, mostly poor, are likely to bear the
brunt but those nearer the poles, mostly rich, may briefly benefit.
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"At least for a few decades there will be a few winners," says Dr Rajendra
Pachauri, the head of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of 2500 experts that will release
the report outlining regional impacts of warming.
But he says most scenarios foresee an extended rise in temperatures this
century, stoked by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases from burning fossil
fuels.
"Clearly there would be no winners left anywhere," he says.
Pachauri declined to give details of the report but a draft seen by Reuters
projects heatwaves, droughts and floods that could cause more hunger for
millions of people, mainly in Asia and Africa, and water shortages for up to 3.2
billion.
It also says, however, that world farms could gain from up to a 3°C rise in
temperatures because of better crop growth at higher latitudes.
And less cold towards the poles could also mean fewer deaths in winter, lower
heating bills and more tourism, aiding nations from Scandinavia to New Zealand.
Are there any real winners?
Even so, many reject the idea of climate change winners.
"You can have positive effects in some sectors and very negative in others. It's
impossible to say what the bottom line will be," says Norwegian environment
minister Helen Bjoernoy.
She says rising temperatures might mean "sweeter apples and cherries" in
Scandinavia or less need for snow ploughs in winter to clear the streets. But
stocks of cod or herring might move north, damaging fisheries.
And there are ethical issues.
"With a temperature rise of perhaps 2-3°C you would see benefits for the whole
temperate zone," says Dr Richard Tol of the
Economic and Social Research
Institute in Dublin.
"But if you approach it from an ethical perspective, that your emissions will
affect people in Bangladesh, then clearly you have to think again," he says.
In Europe, he says places north of about Bordeaux in France could benefit.
Portland, Oregon, in the US and Vladivostok in Russia are roughly on the same
latitude.
Among regional losers, the draft report says Himalayan glaciers could shrink on
current trends to 100,000 square kilometres by 2030 from 500,000 square
kilometres now.
Glaciers regulate river levels and link to irrigation for hundreds of millions
of people in Asia.
Low-lying small island states, such as Tuvalu in the Pacific or the Maldives in
the Indian Ocean, fear they could disappear below the waves as seas rise.
Millions of people from China to Florida live in low-lying coastal areas.
"Sea-level rise and increased sea water temperature are projected to accelerate
beach erosion, and cause degradation of natural coastal defences such as
mangroves and coral reefs," the draft says of small island states.
A UN report in February said seas could gain by 18-59 centimetres by 2100.
And the new draft says that many dry regions, such as the Mediterranean basin,
the Western US, southern Africa and northeastern Brazil "will suffer a decrease
of water resources due to climate change".
Russian fur coats
Russian President Vladimir Putin once mused in 2002, before deciding to ratify
the UN's Kyoto Protocol for fighting global warming, that warming might be good
for his chill nation.
"Maybe it would be good and we could spend less on fur coats and other warm
things," he said.
But other experts say rising temperatures could thaw permafrost on which many
roads and towns are built, from northern Canada to Siberia, and bring forest
pests north.
"And in many regions farming cannot simply move north; Russia and Canada simply
lack suitable soils," Tol says.
Anders Portin, senior vice-president of the Finnish Forestry Industry
Federation, says:
"It's a very dangerous avenue to say there are benefits from climate change,"
adding that paper producers would "certainly not" be net beneficiaries.
Check out the full story at :
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2007/1887303.htm
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